July 3, 2008

Air Quality Forecast

Friday, July 4: Ozone – Code GREEN Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW
Saturday, July 5: Ozone – Code GREEN Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW
Sunday, July 6: Ozone – Code GREEN Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW
Monday, July 7: Ozone – Code YELLOW Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Yesterday’s Regional Maximum Ozone and PM 2.5 Concentrations:
Wednesday, July 2: Ozone - YELLOW (77 AQI or 68 ppb) PM 2.5 - GREEN (43 AQI or 13.3 µg/m3)

Short-Term Discussion: Clouds will begin to increase late this afternoon as a slow moving cold front makes its way towards the Susquehanna Valley. The front will arrive overnight bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with low temperatures only falling into the upper 60s.

The front will stall over the region on Friday, making the holiday mostly cloudy and providing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will climb into the low 80s. Even with the clouds and showers on Friday, it will be quite humid. This will cause particulates to be in the YELLOW (moderate) range. What the clouds and showers will do is contain ozone levels to the GREEN (good) range. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday night as a disturbance rides along the stalled frontal boundary. Friday night looks like the best chance of widespread rain over the weekend. Low temperatures on Friday night will be in the upper 60s.

The Susquehanna Valley will continue to be plagued by the stalled front on Saturday as it will again be mostly cloudy with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will be the coolest day of the weekend with high temperatures only making it into the upper 70s. The humidity levels will remain elevated on Saturday, which will cause particulates to stay in the YELLOW (moderate) range. Ozone should remain in the GREEN (good) range on Saturday due to the cloud cover and showers. Saturday night will be mostly cloudy and muggy as dewpoints and low temperatures both hang in the upper 60s. The chance for showers and storms also has to be mentioned for Saturday night as the front continues to keep things unsettled.

Conditions will not improve on Sunday. It will remain mostly cloudy with the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm up slightly as highs will make it into the low 80s, but the humidity will also increase as dewpoints approach 70 degrees. This will allow particulates to remain in the YELLOW (moderate) range on Sunday. The increase in humidity will also make the air mass more unstable which will help trigger showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The good news is that the instability should help to keep ozone concentrations in the GREEN (good) range since there will be clouds and showers. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will finally begin to diminish as we head into Sunday night with the stalled front weakening and pushing to the north. However, Sunday night will still be mostly cloudy and muggy with low temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s.

Skies will begin to clear on Monday as a Bermuda high builds off the coast. The humidity levels will not improve, though, as humid air will continue to be pumped into the region. As a result, particulates will remain in the YELLOW (moderate) range again on Monday. There will be the return of some sunshine on Monday and temperatures will rise to near 90 degrees, so ozone will likely climb into the upper YELLOW (moderate) range.

Extended: A very weak front will approach the region on Tuesday and may bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. However, this front will not bring any relief to the heat and humidity as the Bermuda high will continue to sit off the coast and dominate the weather pattern.
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